Strategic Element 4: Probability ManagementURL copied
Even with perfect information and perfect reasoning, random outcomes remain. Variance is built into the engine.
Move Accuracy: Most moves are 100% accurate - but not all. Will-O-Wisp burns at 85%. Miss at the wrong moment and an entire strategy collapses.
Secondary Effects: Flamethrower deals damage and has a 10% chance to also burn the target. Free value; never guaranteed.
Critical Hits: Every attack has a $\frac{1}{24} \approx 4.17%$ chance to crit, dealing $ 1.5 \times$ base damage and ignoring your attack drops and their defense boosts.
Damage Rolls: The deepest source of variance. Every attack's final damage is multiplied by a random integer $r$ drawn uniformly from ${85, 86, \ldots, 100}$, producing up to 16 distinct damage values per move.