The Game Theory of Competitive Pokémon

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Strategic Element 4: Probability ManagementURL copied

Accuracy Reference TableURL copied

Move	Type	Accuracy	Secondary Effect
Earthquake	Ground	100%	None
Flamethrower	Fire	100%	10% burn
Will-O-Wisp	Fire	85%	Burns target
Thunder	Electric	70%	30% paralysis
Blizzard	Ice	70%	10% freeze
Hypnosis	Psychic	60%	Sleep
Dynamic Punch	Fighting	50%	100% confusion on hit

The best players choose moves with the highest floor, not just the highest ceiling. Missing Dynamic Punch at a critical moment is not a freak event - it's 50% of the time.

2	✦
3	✦ > Why Is Competitive Pokémon Hard? {#intro}
4	✦ > The Two Phases {#two-phases}
5	✦ > Strategic Element 1: Long-Term Planning {#long-term-planning}
6	✦ > Strategic Element 1: Long-Term Planning {#long-term-planning} > The Whimsicott Game {#whimsicott-game}
7	✦ > Strategic Element 2: Simultaneous Action Selection {#simultaneous}
8	✦ > Strategic Element 2: Simultaneous Action Selection {#simultaneous} > The Decision Matrix {#decision-matrix}
9	✦ > Strategic Element 3: Imperfect Information {#imperfect-info}
10	✦ > Strategic Element 3: Imperfect Information {#imperfect-info} > Assumption Traps {#assumption-traps}
11	✦ > Strategic Element 4: Probability Management {#probability}
12	✦ > Strategic Element 4: Probability Management {#probability} > The Damage Formula {#damage-formula}
13	✦ > Strategic Element 4: Probability Management {#probability} > Simulated Damage Distribution {#damage-sim}
14	✦ > Strategic Element 4: Probability Management {#probability} > Accuracy Reference Table {#accuracy-table}
15	✦ > The Strategic Web {#strategic-web}
16	✦ > The Strategic Web {#strategic-web} > Interactive Strategy Map {#strategy-map}
17	✦ > How Pokémon Compares {#comparison}
18	✦ > Team Building {#team-building}
19	✦ > Team Building {#team-building} > Speed Creep: One Number Wins Tournaments {#speed-creep}
20	✦ > Team Building {#team-building} > The Metagame {#metagame}
21	✦ > The Iterative Loop {#loop}
22	✦ > Conclusion {#conclusion}
23	✦ > Source